[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebound slightly on July 18, Trump says he will impose a 25% tariff on Japan starting from August 1

SMM Nickel News on July 18:

Macro News:

(1) Recently, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) held a seminar for the heads of central state-owned enterprises. The meeting required that state-owned enterprises and central state-owned enterprises must accelerate the cultivation and expansion of new quality productive forces, and gather new momentum and advantages for creating a new situation in enterprise reform and development. Accelerate the transition from "sweat-driven growth" driven by substantial input of factors to "smart-driven growth" driven by technological innovation.

(2) US President Trump stated that the US might implement tariff rates on Japan as previously communicated in a letter, and might soon reach a trade agreement with India. Trump had recently sent a letter to Japanese leaders, stating that a 25% tariff would be imposed on imported goods from Japan starting from August 1. Trump also expressed his intention to uniformly impose additional tariffs on over 150 secondary trading partners of the US.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 120,300-122,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 121,500 yuan/mt, up 1,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 1,900-2,100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,000 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is 0-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2508 contract) opened lower and closed higher in the night session, oscillating around the 120,000 yuan/mt level in the daytime session. As of the midday session, the SHFE nickel price was quoted at 120,120 yuan/mt, up 0.41%.

Macro factors dominate the direction, with a risk of downward movement in the price center. If tariffs are implemented or the US Fed delays an interest rate cut, SHFE nickel prices may further decline. In the short term, nickel prices may continue to be in the doldrums, with a core reference range of 118,000-123,000 yuan/mt.